Recent rebound in lithium carbonate prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of Sino-Trade: lithium carbonate has shown a clear rebound trend recently. As of July 9, the Sino-Trade benchmark price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,600 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month; the Sino-Trade benchmark price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 60,966 yuan/ton, up 2.52% from the beginning of the month.

Since July, some high-cost enterprises have actively adjusted their production rhythm. For example, it is reported that a lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to stop production for maintenance for 2 months, which is expected to affect monthly production by about 1,000 tons. In the first quarter of this year, about 3 to 4 mines in Australia reduced production, and the mines in Pilbara were closed. The lithium concentrate in the first and second quarters fell by 6-7 points month-on-month, and the grade of some mines declined. For example, the grade of Greenbushes fell by 0.1 points month-on-month, resulting in an average cost increase of 24%. The mines have a strong sentiment to support prices, which has a certain support for lithium ore prices.

The power end production fell in July. Some battery companies adjusted their production plans according to market demand and their own inventory conditions, and the incremental demand for lithium carbonate was limited. However, with the continuous development of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for lithium carbonate still has room for growth in the long run.

Energy storage demand: Although the pace of energy storage project construction has slowed down due to the cancellation of the mandatory storage policy, the domestic energy storage market still has great development potential in the long run.

Overseas energy storage demand is uncertain due to changes in export policies.

Domestic policy: The General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on June 23 to organize the 2025 Thousand Counties and Towns New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season (July to December), requiring the implementation of the car trade-in policy. On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption", encouraging financial institutions to carry out auto loan business and appropriately reduce the penalty for early settlement of loans during the car trade-in process. These policies are aimed at stimulating new energy vehicle consumption and have a potential driving effect on lithium carbonate demand, but in the short term, the policy effect has not yet been fully reflected in the market.

Overseas policy: The extension of the US tariff exemption has supported the energy storage export rush to a certain extent, which is beneficial to the price of lithium carbonate. However, policy changes such as the US election and the traceability requirements of the EU's "New Battery Law" may disturb demand. For example, the Trump administration's suspension of green energy subsidies and the imposition of tariffs have a negative impact on the prospects of the US lithium battery market.

The lithium carbonate data analyst of Sino-Trade believes that the lithium carbonate market still faces many uncertainties. If prices continue to rise, it may stimulate companies to resume production and put new production capacity into operation, and the supply side will face an increase again. In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate still has a downward risk, and specific market changes still need to be paid attention to.