Lithium carbonate price and futures analysis on June 25

Price trend:

On June 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2509 futures closed at 60,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.06%, a maximum of 61,660 yuan/ton, a minimum of 58,880 yuan/ton, and a settlement of 60,300 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the settlement was 58,900 yuan/ton.

Positions and trading volume:

Positions decreased by 13,390 lots to 343,600 lots, with a net outflow of 50 million yuan, showing a "reduced position upward" feature. The main long side withdrew (reduced position by 13,192 lots), and the short side entered the market (increased position by 933 lots). The market sentiment was bearish and the net short position expanded.

Fundamental driving factors:

Supply pressure continued and production increased: Lithium carbonate production in June increased by more than 9% month-on-month, lithium salt plant resumption of production and stable imports (Chilean shipments were delayed but the arrival volume in June did not decrease), and total supply climbed. Cost support weakened: the price of spodumene mined from abroad fell to US$610/ton (Australia 6% CIF), and some high-cost mica mines (cost>60,000 yuan/ton) faced losses, but the cost of Australian mines was only below 55,000 yuan/ton, and there was still room for compression.

Demand was weak, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode materials fell by 10% month-on-month. Power batteries entered the off-season, and car companies had high inventories. There was no increase in the energy storage market, and downstream purchases were only for rigid needs.

The output of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly by 0.92%, but the demand for ternary materials weakened, and terminal destocking was slow.

The inventory reached a new high, with total social inventory reaching 134,900 tons (a weekly increase of 1,352 tons). The inventory of lithium ore + lithium salt can cover 3.5 months of demand, and the inventory of smelters accounted for 43% (58,600 tons), suppressing the price rebound.

Operation suggestions:

Short: If it rebounds to more than 61,000 yuan/ton, short orders can be arranged, and the stop loss reference is 62,500 yuan/ton. Risk points: Pay attention to the speed of warehouse receipt cancellation and macro policies to stimulate new energy consumption, and maintain the idea of short selling at high prices.

Outlook for the future market: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is suppressed by the increase in short positions in the short term. Although it rebounded during the day, the upward trend of positions reduction indicates that the rebound momentum is insufficient. Under the triple pressure of clear supply increase (resumption of production + import), deepening of demand off-season (unsmooth terminal destocking) and historical high inventory, the price center of gravity will move further downward. Focus on two points: First, the position game of the July contract may cause fluctuations; second, whether the cost line support is broken (signal of mica mine production reduction). The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.