Lithium carbonate falls below the 60000 barrier, industry reshuffle accelerates overseas breakout

The 2507 price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fell below the 60000 yuan/ton mark, a record low in the past 3 years, and the market's controversy over the bottom of the industry is heating up again. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is not solved, the cost support collapse, enterprises to accelerate the sea, lithium carbonate market is experiencing a period of deep adjustment.
       Price collapse: supply and demand imbalance and cost collapse resonance.
       Lithium carbonate prices fell from a high of 560000 yuan/tonne in November 2022 to 59,780 yuan/tonne on June 16, down more than 89%. The core contradiction lies in the supply-side "stampede growth": Qinghai salt lake lithium into the peak season, Jiangxi mica enterprises to resume production, June domestic production increased by 8.3, salt lake enterprises to 30000-40000 yuan/ton cost to become the new anchor point of price. On the demand side, there is a "power + energy storage double weak" pattern: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 50% after the growth rate slowed down, the energy storage policy receded to rush to load the tide overdraft demand, May storage battery shipments fell 4.35 percent month-on-month. Inventory pressure is difficult to solve, social inventories climbed to 131600 tons, covering 50 days of demand, smelter selling pressure exacerbated panic.
       Industrial chain conduction: collective collapse of downstream product prices
       The plunge in lithium carbonate triggered a downstream chain reaction, with prices such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hydroxide diving simultaneously. In May, the average price of storage-type lithium iron phosphate was 33,000 yuan/tonne, down 15.38 percent from the beginning of the year, while the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide micropowder was 68,250 yuan/tonne, down 32.78 percent year-on-year. Processing enterprises fell into the quagmire of losses: outsourcing mica lithium enterprises lost more than 4,400 yuan per ton, recycling lithium comprehensive losses of 7,792 yuan, the industry operating rate of only 60%. Head enterprises are also under pressure, Hunan Yuneng comprehensive gross margin from 12.48 percent in 2022 to 5.52 percent in the first quarter of 2025, lithium iron phosphate processing costs upside down forced enterprises to turn to three and a half generations, four generations of products to survive.
        Industry reshuffle: capacity clearance and overseas layout of the two-line promotion.
       Capital ebb to accelerate the industry clear: nuclear titanium dioxide to terminate 500000 tons of iron phosphate project, 1.666 billion yuan of funds to the main business. At the same time, enterprises accelerated to sea to compete for profit heights: Longpan Technology locked Malaysia's 152000-ton lithium iron phosphate order, Hunan Yuneng Spain's 50000-ton cathode material project was promoted, and overseas market price difference (domestic 60000 yuan/ton vs overseas 120000 yuan/ton) became the key to break through. Salt Lake enterprises by virtue of cost advantages against the trend of expansion, Salt Lake shares 40000 tons of new production capacity trial production, low-cost capacity market share rose from 32% to 38%.
        Bottom Game: Policy and Technology Reconstruct Industry Logic
        Short-term prices or down to 58000-60000 yuan/ton range, but further decline space is limited: salt lake cost line 30000-40000 yuan/ton to form a rigid support, if the price falls below 70000 yuan/ton, 2026 high-cost mica, spodumene ore will accelerate the exit. Policy side, the EU carbon tariff upgrade forced battery recycling technology breakthrough, white list enterprises recycled materials costs or reduce 30%, or reshape the raw material supply structure. At the technical end, the commercialization of sodium batteries has accelerated (20% lower cost than lithium batteries), but the energy density bottleneck restricts its substitution to the power market.
        Future Outlook: Structural Differentiation and Cycle Reshaping
        The lithium carbonate market will show the characteristics of "L-shaped grinding bottom": the surplus of 265000 tons of LCE will rebound in 2025, but the gap between supply and demand will narrow to 120000 tons in 2026, and the price is expected to rise to 80000-90000 yuan/ton. After the industry reshuffle, companies with resource self-sufficiency (e. g., Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium) or overseas channel advantages (e. g., Ningde Times) will dominate the new cycle. Investors need to pay attention to two major signals: 1) Salt Lake lithium capacity release rhythm, 2) overseas energy storage installed more than expected (a monthly increase of more than 3GW).